How much supported housing will we need by 2040?

Supported housing currently helps more than half a million people to live independently in their communities. It provides a vital service to the people in our society who need the most support, from survivors of domestic abuse to young people leaving care.

New research commissioned by the NHF and completed by Altair Ltd., shows that we’re not on track to provide a supported home to everyone who needs one by 2040.

Our findings show we need at least 167,000 more supported homes by 2040. Without this, many people who could live independently with support will face long stays in residential or institutional care or be at risk of homelessness.

Read our summary

Read the full report

Template letter to write to your MP

Two page resource for political stakeholders

How much supported housing will we need by 2040, and how much will it cost?

We will need 167,329 more homes by 2040. This is a 33% increase, from 509,873 in 2023 to 677,202 in 2040.
Most supported housing will be needed by older people. Around a quarter of homes will need to be tailored for working aged adults and the remaining 75-77% for older people.
Long-term supported and older people’s housing will be vital. We will need 20-22% of homes to be short-term and help people in crisis, and we will need 78-80% of homes to be long-term and provide a secure home for those who need it, including all homes for older people.
The development cost of providing 167,329 more supported homes is £33.9bn by 2040.

Without the right homes with the right support, more people will be at risk of homelessness, will face longer stays in residential or institutional care and will have longer hospital stays, placing more demand on the NHS and social care.

The research shows that to deliver enough supported housing into the future, we need a long-term plan for housing that makes sure every decision about care is a decision about housing. A national plan should include an ambitious funding commitment that unlocks the development of new supported homes and secures support and housing costs.

167,329

We will need at least 167,329 more homes by 2040. This is a 33% increase, from 509,873 in 2023 to 677,202 in 2040.

What should be included in a long-term plan for supported housing?

A commitment to at least 167,000 more supported homes by 2040.
An ability for local authorities and integrated care boards to plan, fund and commission supported housing, including housing for older people.
Ring-fenced funding for supported housing, that rises to meet demand, covering estimated support costs of £3.4bn a year in 2040.
A plan to collect better data on the need and demand for supported housing. We should know whether everyone who needs support to live independently has a safe, secure home, to make sure we leave no one behind.
A recommitment to the £300m Housing Transformation Fund, to support the development of supported housing and to make every decision about care a decision about housing. Join our campaign to call for a long-term plan for housing that leaves no one behind.

In the run up to the next general election, we’re asking our members to join our campaign for a long-term plan for housing.

To use this research to call for a sustainable future for supported housing, we’ve created a series of resources you can use to make the case to your political candidates.

Who to speak to

Katie Hipkiss, Research Lead

katie.hipkiss@housing.org.uk